Projections overview

Table of contents

  1. Ethnic population projections background
  2. National population projections
  3. National ethnic population projections
  4. National European or Other projections
  5. National Māori projections
  6. National Asian projections
  7. National Pacific projections
  8. National family and household projections
  9. National labour force projections
  10. Subnational population projections
  11. Subnational ethnic population projections
  12. Subnational European or Other projections
  13. Subnational Māori projections
  14. Subnational Asian projections
  15. Subnational Pacific projections
  16. Subnational family and household projections

This is an overview of the various demographic projections produced by Statistics New Zealand. These include projections of the total New Zealand population, local and regional populations, various ethnic groups, families and households, and the labour force. The overview highlights the main features from each set of projections, which are derived to assist communities, business and government in planning for the future. Links to more detailed information are provided at the beginning of each section.

It is appropriate to draw attention to some of the constraints that apply to these series. Firstly, these demographic projections are neither predictions nor forecasts. They represent the statistical outcomes of various combinations of selected assumptions about future changes in the dynamics of population change. These assumptions are formulated from the latest demographic trends and patterns, as well as international experiences.

Secondly, given the uncertainties about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and their determinants, Statistics New Zealand derives a range of alternative demographic scenarios. However, because of space restrictions, only one series has been cited here in each case. In general, the chosen series conveys the broad features of likely future dynamics and patterns.

Thirdly, these projections do not take into account non-demographic factors such as war and catastrophe that may invalidate the projections. Population trends and patterns are monitored regularly and, when it is necessary, the projections are revised to incorporate new demographic evidence.

In summary, the main prospects in the coming decades are for continuing low fertility, slower population growth, further longevity gains, smaller households, increasing ethnic diversity, an ageing population, an older labour force, and a further concentration of population in the northern North Island.

Notes:

  1. Derived figures such as percentage changes have been produced using data of greater precision than what is published. The figures may differ slightly from those derived using rounded data.
  2. All projection data has a reference date of 30 June.